SOMALIA: High Risk for Full Regional War
Simon Tissdall of the Guardian newspaper writes:
Watching Somalia right now is like standing on a beach, waiting for a category five hurricane to hit. The storm is approaching fast, there seems little that can be done, and the ensuing destruction will be terrible - and far-reaching. The looming Somali cataclysm threatens to spark a regional war, suck in east African and Arab actors, and create a dangerous new theatre in the polarising, global contest between western power and Islamist jihadism. Somalia has the potential to make Darfur look like a little local difficulty.
Mr. Tisdall went on by saying:
Three outcomes were possible at this juncture, the western source said. One was that UN-backed, on-off talks between the UIC and Baidoa government resumed, the African protection force deployed, and a “proper political process” got underway. Another, less improbable scenario was that Ethiopia used its military superiority to secure Baidoa and “clobber” some UIC training camps, enabling the government to negotiate from a stronger position. But a third, nightmare outcome was that “the Ethiopians do the full monty, go in in strength, and get stuck”, the source said. That could lead to spreading, al-Qaida-fuelled guerrilla warfare akin to Iraq, Sudanese-style Arab-African conflict, and ultimately, pressure for direct western intervention.