SOMALIA: Ethiopia’s Risky Adventure
Galal Nassar of the Egyptian Al Ahram Weekly writes:
US bombers began pounding away at Somali positions as battles escalated between the Somali resistance and the combined forces of the invading Ethiopian army and the Somali interim government. Hardly a day passes without a bombing or assassination in Baidoa, capital of the interim government. The Americans are using their usual excuse: they are trying to kill Al-Qaeda leaders. Somalia’s Islamic resistance seems to have mastered the art of guerrilla warfare, taking control of small towns then abandoning them and disappearing into the population. It is a tactic designed to baffle and frustrate a regular army trying to fight a symmetric war. Where exactly is the enemy? Meanwhile, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and the Eritreans are waiting for the right moment to assault the Ethiopians.
Galaal Nassir went on by saying:
The Islamic Courts have something in common with both the Palestinian and the Iraqi resistance movements: religious zeal. But they are more clannish than the Palestinians and less sectarian than the Iraqis. So far, the Somali resistance has managed to put so much pressure on the Ethiopian occupation forces that current battles are likely to develop into a full- fledged war. Factor in the Eritrean-Ethiopian border rivalries, the resurgence of the ONLF, and Ethiopia’s efforts to stir up inter- tribal conflicts in Somalia, and the future seems to be rather dim for the Ethiopians. First of all, Eritrea is likely to escalate things on the borders with Ethiopia. Second, Ethiopia will have to deploy more troops against the ONLF. And third, the scale of resistance in various parts of Somalia may prove too much for the Ethiopians. So why is Ethiopia refusing to withdraw from Somalia?
Galal Nassir concluded by saying:
For starters, Ethiopia wants an access to the sea. Since Eritrean independence, Ethiopia has been landlocked. Should Ethiopia pull out of Somalia and recognise the independence of both Eritrea and Somalia, it would have to learn to live without sea access or regional clout. It is not only money or trade Ethiopia is worried about, but influence and power. Still, if Ethiopia decides to stay in Somalia while being challenged on other fronts, it may be risking utter defeat. At one point, the Somalis may start demanding the Ogaden region back. A protracted war in Somalia may therefore lead to profound changes in Ethiopia’s politics and geography. Ethiopia, let’s keep in mind, is not exactly an ethnically or religiously homogeneous nation. And some local clans may just be tempted to secede or grab power from the central government.
It goes without saying that Galaal Nassir’s analyis are right to the point!
Click here to read the article in its entirety on the Al Ahram Weekly.