Ainashe.net

Stephanie Hanson of the US Council of Foreign Relations writes:

In the disputed border area between Ethiopia and Eritrea, tensions have been high all year but neither side appears willing to break the stalemate. Instead, both countries have been amassing troops in neighboring Somalia in what appears to be a proxy war. The build-up threatens to tip the entire Horn of Africa into a regional war (CSMonitor). Such a conflict appears increasingly imminent: this week Somalia’s Islamists threatened they’ll attack (BBC) if Ethiopian troops don’t leave within seven days. Ethiopia—a Christian nation with a significant Muslim population—sent troops into Somalia in support of the country’s weak, but internationally recognized, transitional government. Since the Islamists’ seizure of Mogadishu in June and the expansion of their area of control, Addis Ababa has been concerned their influence could inflame Ethiopia’s Muslims. Eager to support the enemy of its enemy, Eritrea has provided arms and troops to support the Somali Islamists, as well as other anti-Ethiopian forces in Somalia.

Ms. Hanson does not seem to understand the internal political dynamics of the Somali people. The external political and security factors certainly add more fuel to the tragic somali conflict but they are not the cause of the current conflict as Ms. Hanson mistakenly seem to imply!

Click here to view the full note on the Council of Foreign Relations.

Simon Tissdall of the Guardian newspaper writes:

Watching Somalia right now is like standing on a beach, waiting for a category five hurricane to hit. The storm is approaching fast, there seems little that can be done, and the ensuing destruction will be terrible - and far-reaching. The looming Somali cataclysm threatens to spark a regional war, suck in east African and Arab actors, and create a dangerous new theatre in the polarising, global contest between western power and Islamist jihadism. Somalia has the potential to make Darfur look like a little local difficulty.

Mr. Tisdall went on by saying:

Three outcomes were possible at this juncture, the western source said. One was that UN-backed, on-off talks between the UIC and Baidoa government resumed, the African protection force deployed, and a “proper political process” got underway. Another, less improbable scenario was that Ethiopia used its military superiority to secure Baidoa and “clobber” some UIC training camps, enabling the government to negotiate from a stronger position. But a third, nightmare outcome was that “the Ethiopians do the full monty, go in in strength, and get stuck”, the source said. That could lead to spreading, al-Qaida-fuelled guerrilla warfare akin to Iraq, Sudanese-style Arab-African conflict, and ultimately, pressure for direct western intervention.

Click here to view the full analysis on the Guardian.

The International Herald Tribune writes:
Somalia’s president (Col. Cabdullahi Yuusuf ) said Friday that peace talks with the country’s Islamic movement are no longer an option because the group’s leaders have declared war on his government

The paper writes that Col. Cabdullahi Yuusuf of the TFG was quoted as saying:

They are the ones who effectively closed the door to peace talks and they are the ones who are waging the war.

The Colonel continued by saying:

The fighting can happen at any time now.

War should not be the first option. Somali political leaders must make peace and they should not threaten to wage war that could certainly cause the death of thousands of innocent Somalis.

Click here to view the full article on IHT.

David Gollust of Voice of America wries:

In a bleak assessment of the Somali situation, Assistant Secretary Frazer says radicals including al-Qaida figures have taken control of the Islamic Courts movement, and that it may be too late for a plan approved by the U.N. Security Council earlier this month to stabilize the situation. On December 6, the Security Council approved a resolution granting an exemption to the U.N. arms embargo on Somalia to allow an East African military mission to enter the country and shore up the country’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) based in Baidoa which is under siege from the Islamic Courts. Uganda has agreed to take part in what is termed a protection and training mission by the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development, IGAD, but the process of assembling the force has been slow. In a talk with reporters, Assistant Secretary Frazer said the United States has lent diplomatic support to the effort, but that it may be too late to achieve the objective of Resolution 1725 - to bolster the transitional government in order to prompt the Union of Islamic Courts to return to talks on the country’s future: “It could possibly be too late,” said Jendayi Frazer. “And I think we need to be very clear that the Africans believe they asked for these two and a half years ago. When the TFG first went back to Somalia from Nairobi, they asked for this exemption. And so there are some African countries that will definitely state that we waited too late.”

Click here to view the full article on Dehai.

Sheikh Yusuf Mohamed Siad “Inda’ade”; the defense chief of the Somali Islamic Nationalists issued an ultimatum and asked Ethiopian troops to leave all Somali territories that they currently occupy within a week or face an all-out war.

Personally, I do not believe that war should be rushed to as it only brings misery and bloodshed. In addition, the TFG is so weak and powerless that it is only a matter of time before it collapses under its own weight. Hence, toppling it by forces will only create more chaos.

Peace must be given a chance!

Sheikh Yusuf Mohamed Siad “Inda’ade”; (on the right).
Copy Right: Shabelle Media/Reuters News Agency.

The Irish Breaking News network reports:

Thousands of Islamic militants today surrounded the only town Somalia’s government controls, the prime minister said. It came as a top Islamic official promised to attack within a week unless troops from neighboring Ethiopia leave the country. The surrounded town of Baidoa was today teeming with soldiers patrolling the city and manning checkpoints. Ethiopian troops are believed to be based around Baidoa.

I think the Somali Islamic Nationalists should not attack Baydhabo; the provincial seat of the failed TFG. However, I do believe that Somalia’s territorial integrity must be respected. More importantly, I do believe that Somalis must have, like everyone else, the right to self defense and they must be allowed to push back Ethiopia’s aggressive attempt to annex Somalia by military force.

I also believe that the TFG must disband and choose honorable exit. Otherwise, they will be forced to go away. Hopefully, that will happen through the ballot box rather than the barrel of the gun.

Click here to view the full article.

Oryem Okello; the Ugandans Minister of State for Foreign Affairs was quoted as saying:

We have decided that at this particular time, we should not go to Somalia.

The Minister went on by saying:

The situation has deteriorated rapidly — it risks all-out war.

This is a great victory for the Somali people. No country should help facilitate Ethiopian invasion of Somalia. I hope other countries will act wisely and follow Uganda’s lead.

Click here to view the article on the Reuters’ Alertnet.

A new, yet to be released UN Report is claiming that the Iranian Government is secretly trying to exploit Uranium deposits in middle Somalia.

Click here to view the full report (PDF) on the Pajamas Media.

Liam Bailey of Desicritics writes:

The 15 Member United Nations Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 1725 Dec. 6 2006. The U.S led resolution authorizes a regional force from the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the African Union (AU) to establish a protection and training mission in Somalia. And the lifting of the UN arms embargo in relation to supplying the peacekeeping force. The previous UN mission in the country, started similarly but ended in a bloody battle and the death of 18 Marines attempting to disarm rival factions. The current resolution states its intention to consider taking measures against those that seek to prevent or block a peaceful dialogue process, overthrow the Transitional Federal Institutions by force, or take action that further threatens regional stability. Suggesting that, like its predecessor it could become far more than a protection and training mission, which may well have an adverse effect regional stability.

I agree entirely with Liam. The UN resolution is just a farce!

Click here to view the full article on Desicritics.org

The Spero News reports:

A large deployment of forces is underway along the border between Kenya and Somalia. The Kenyan armed forces were widely deployed along the border with the Gedo region (extreme south of Somalia) and particularly at the El-Wakh border pass. “Military troops, police and armoured vehicles are massed at the El-Wakh village in Kenya”, said this morning a local correspondent of a top Mogadishu radio. Residents of villages of the Gedo region along the border confirmed the troop movements on the other side of the border, specifying that the first reinforcements began arriving in the zone shortly after the militants of the Islamic Courts on September 25 seized the city of Kismaayo.

It looks like that Somalia is under attack from many fronts!

Click here to view the full article on Spero News

The Economist Magazine reports:

Eyewitness reports on Monday October 9th suggested that “several hundred” Ethiopian soldiers, perhaps three battalions, had entered the small town of Burhakaba, well inside Somali territory. There have long been reports of Ethiopian troops at the town of Baidoa, 65km to the north, where a UN-recognised (but not widely Somali-recognised) transitional government sits. And there have been regular and credible reports of Ethiopian military planes landing on dirt strips up and down the country. Ethiopia has claimed, not very convincingly, that it has no soldiers inside Somalia. In fact it seems that the soldiers were sent in as a response to an approach by Islamist forces, soldiers under the control of a de facto government in Mogadishu, known as the Islamic courts, to within 20km of Baidoa late last week. There has been no fighting, yet. The Islamists were undermanned in the town and retreated without a shot being fired. But such calm is unlikely to last. Burhakaba is a strategically useful forward base for any attack on Mogadishu. Islamist leaders have vowed to take back the town; some unconfirmed accounts say they already have.

Click here to view the full article.

Copy Right: The Economist

The Malaysian News Agency (Bernama) reports:

Somalia’s powerful Islamist movement declared “holy war” against neighboring Ethiopia after a Muslim-held town near the seat of the weak government fell to Ethiopian and Somali troops. A day after warning of a regional war if Addis Ababa does not withdraw from Somali territory, the Islamists escalated their rhetoric, vowing to repel Ethiopian soldiers in a tacit warning to the transitional government. “From today, I am declaring jihad against Ethiopia, which has invaded our country and taken parts of our homeland,” said Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, chair of the executive committee of the Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia (SICS). “The jihad is on from now (and) application of that will be directed by the supreme council,” he said in Mogadishu, which the Islamists seized in June and have used as a base to expand through most of south and central Somalia.

War is not the solution to Somalia’s tragic political conflict. However, Ethiopian invasion of Somalia must not be allowed to happen at any cost! Somalia must be allowed to exist as a free nation. Hence, Ethiopia must respect Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Click here for the full article

The Economist magazine writes:

Although Somalia’s Islamists say that their aim is nothing more threatening than to remake the country as a peaceful and tolerant Islamic state, Somalia’s internationally recognised (but dreadfully weak) transitional government insists that they are an “al-Qaeda network”. A recent suicide bombing which narrowly missed the transitional president, Abdullahi Yusuf, and the killing of an elderly Italian nun working at a Mogadishu hospital, probably in retaliation for Pope Benedict XVI’s remarks on violence and Islam, confirmed the worst fears of some, including the United States. The Kenyan coast already has direct experience of al-Qaeda’s brand of violence—in 2002 it bombed a hotel full of Israelis in Mombasa, killing 16, and tried to shoot down an Israeli airliner—and the Nairobi-based intelligence community expects more. So people are nervous.

The paper went on by saying:

Kenya’s Muslims feel disenfranchised. They have had little access to national power, in contrast to neighbouring Tanzania, where Islamist rhetoric has been blunted by socialism and Muslims have held most of the high offices of state (see article). So far, however, Muslims on the Kenyan coast have usually been repulsed by jihadist rhetoric. But a revival of Arabic and access to Arab satellite television, linking local backwaters to a sometimes inflammatory message of Islam under siege, could change that.

The Economist is right to say that one of the reasons the Kenyans are nervous is the fact that “Kenya’s Muslims feel disenfranchised”. However, there is another reason which is far more important than anything else: Kenya occupies a large portion of Somali territory! And the Somali islamic nationalists want that territory to be FREE from Kenyan oppression.

Click here to view the full article on the Economist magazine.

The online “Peace Peporter” writes:

The moment feared so much may have arrived. Monday morning, following the conquest of the center of Buur Hakaba on the part of joint Somali and Ethiopian forces, the Islamic courts have declared a holy war against Ethiopia, accused of having invaded the country and of being the party responsible for Somali instability.

Click here to view the full article.

The Houston Chronicles quoted a resident of the Somali port town of Kismaayo as saying “We welcome the Islamic courts”. The paper also reported Hirale’s deputy, Yusuf Mire Mohamud, as saying “the Juba Valley Alliance has collapsed today.”.

Could Bosaaso and Berbera be next? It is unbelievable to see the speed of political and military advancement of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU)!

Click here to view the article.

Dr. Michael A. Weinstein of The Power and Interest News Report (PINR):

Far from ameliorating the polarized power configuration pitting the I.C.C. against Ethiopia, which is determined to defend the T.F.G. and prevent the emergence of an Islamic state in Somalia, the second round of the Khartoum process — brokered by the Arab League (A.L.) — intensified the confrontation and spawned new conflicts. With all the players under severe duress, all of Somalia came into play, regional actors polarized as Western powers watched from the sidelines, and cracks appeared within Somalia’s society as local and clan conflicts surfaced, portending the possibility of civil war and a return to the extreme political fragmentation that had characterized the country before the I.C.C.’s surge through its southern and central regions in early June, after the Courts movement had expelled the ruling warlord coalition from Somalia’s official capital Mogadishu.

Interesting analysis! However, I just got the article from PINR through email few minutes ago and I will need to read it properly. Hopefully, I will be able to make a comment about this later this week.

In the meantime, you may like to click here to view the full article on the PINR.

The BBC News reports:

The African Union has approved plans to send 8,000 peacekeepers to Somalia to support the interim government. An alliance of Islamic courts which controls the capital and much of central and southern Somalia says it will oppose any deployment by force. A meeting at AU headquarters in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, agreed that the first soldiers should be in place by the end of the month. But obstacles remain as the AU does not have the funds to pay for the troops. The approval for the force by the African Union Peace and Security Council also appears to fly in the face of a shaky agreement between Somalia’s interim government and the Islamic courts not to allow any foreign intervention.

This is a big political mistake that could potentially ignite new armed confrontation between Somali Army on one side and Col. Cabdullahi Yuusuf and his tribal militia with Ethiopian army on the other side. As I wrote before, Col. Cabdullahi Yuusuf and the failed TFG must understand that the political legitimacy cannot be achieved through the barrel of the gun. It must be earned through popular support!

The Somali people must defend their country against the looming threat of foreign invasion!

Click here to view then full dispatch by the BBC.

The Kenya Broadcasting Corporation reports:

An Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has reaffirmed support for the ongoing initiatives to promote dialogue for sustainable peace in Somalia. However the meeting at State House Nairobi today under the chairmanship of President Mwai Kibaki, the noted that the prevailing situation posed a threat to peace and gravely undermined the ability of the Transitional Federal Institutions in Somalia to consolidate the gains made so far to achieve long-term stability. The meeting, attended by President Abdulahi Yusuf of Somalia and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia re-affirmed support for the Transitional Federal Charter and Federal Transitional Institutions as an embodiment of the common will of the Somali people. In a communiqué issued at the end of the consultation, the IGAD forum expressed support for the ongoing dialogue between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and encouraged both parties to strive to overcome any differences by actively pursuing genuine reconciliation. The forum further reiterated that any dialogue must be based on the will of the Somalia people and preserve the sanctity of the Transitional Federal Charter and Federal Institutions which provide a solid political framework to achieve a lasting solution to the Somali problems. They endorsed the revised Igad Mission to Somalia (IGASOM) deployment plan as approved by the African Union (AU) peace and security council and further called on the AU to provide the requisite funds to enable the implementation of the first phase of the plan.

IGAD is a dysfunctional organisation run by depots, dictators and the enemy of the Somali Nation (Ethiopia and Kenya). Hence, no one should be surprised by this act! They want the tragic Somali conflict to continue!

Click here to view the full article.

Wangui Kanina of the Reuters news agency writes:

East African leaders pushed ahead on Tuesday with a contested plan to send peacekeepers to Somalia, despite a separate military deal between the country’s rival powers that appeared to block foreign intervention. The regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which led talks that produced Somalia’s interim government in 2004, urged the African Union to speed approval of the proposed peacekeeping mission, release funds and help raise more money to support the deployment of troops. IGAD also called on the U.N. Security Council to meet “urgently” to consider lifting its arms embargo on Somalia, torn apart by factions fighting for control of the Horn of Africa nation since warlords ousted Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. Late on Monday, Islamist and government delegates meeting in the Sudanese capital Khartoum, agreed in principle to join their military forces if they could agree on sharing political power. The pact stressed that neither side would accept military interference inside Somalia by neighboring countries and seemed to set up yet another possible conflict between the government and the Islamists.

The TFG must put screeching halt on this ill-thought and counter-productive plan. Col. Cabdullaahi Yuusuf and Cali Geedi cannot say we want to negotiate peace while at the same time they keeping fueling the conflict by pushing for African troop deployment in Somalia.

Somali peace talks need more honest peace brokers from the Arab and Islamic countries. As the saying goes “ Baadida ninbaa kula daydayi, daalna kaa badin, aan doonahayn inaad heshana daaying abidkaa”. Both Ethiopa and Kenya are working tirelessly for permanent break up of Somalia and further fragmentation of the Somali Nation.

We cannot and we must not allow Somalia’s enemies to sit on the driver’s seat as we did in the past!

Click here to view the full article onn Reuters.

The Dubai based Gulf News newspaper reports:

A copy of the agenda obtained by AP shows that the talks, expected to continue for several days, are to revolve around a June agreement to discuss political, security, social and economic issues as well as reconstruction. Negotiators have said they hope to discuss Cabinet positions for the Islamists and seats in the transitional parliament as well as the transitional charter. The Islamists could argue that they control a significant part of the country and on that basis should share power with Somali President Abdullahi Yousuf’s transitional government.

If true, this is really a big mistake by the ICU. I mean the ICU does not need to hold cabinet posts in the failed TFG. They already control the most strategic sectors of the country including Mogadishu. They should go ahead and assemble their own government by consulting with Somali people and its local leaders. The TFG had its chance to lead the country and it failed.

Somalia needs a fresh start!

Click here to view the full article on the Gulf News.

C. Bryson Hull of the Reuters news agency writes:

Anarchic Somalia has confounded U.S. foreign policy once again, leaving Washington struggling to find a coherent approach to a state whose internal turmoil threatens to destabilise the Horn of Africa. The Bush administration appears to have realised that its “one-size-fits-all” approach to countering global terrorist threats failed in Somalia. But it is groping for an appropriate response to the new situation, diplomats and analysts say. Though overshadowed by the Middle East and Iraq, anarchic Somalia has long worried Washington because of fears its coastline — Africa’s longest — and proximity to the Arabian Peninsula could be exploited by militants posing a threat to U.S. interests and looking for a gateway into east Africa. A covert counter-terrorism initiative in which the United States threw its support behind secular warlords fighting Islamists in Mogadishu backfired spectacularly in June. The U.S. involvement actually worked to strengthen the Islamists’ hand and helped them conquer the capital, analysts say. Now with an internationally recognised interim government’s hopes of survival flagging in the face of a well-armed and organised Islamist movement, Washington’s only play so far has been to promote talks to bring the Islamists into the administration.

As I have argued here, here, and elsewhere in this blog, the Bush Administration’s foreign policy towards Somalia is at best, counter-productive and at worst destructive!

Click here to view the full article on Reuters.

The Reuters news agency reports:

Talks aimed at reconciling Somalia’s fledgling transitional government and the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), were continuing on Monday in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, under the mediation of the League of Arab States. At the same time Kenya announced that President Mwai Kibaki would on Tuesday chair a special summit of the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which will discuss the Somali crisis. IGAD, which comprises Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Uganda and Somalia, mediated the reconciliation talks that culminated in the formation of the transitional government in Kenya in October 2004.

Click here to view the full report.

Foreign interference and the presence of foreign forces on Somali soil, some of whom are already there, is a recipe for another civil war, instead of the pursuit of reconciliation and reconstruction.

Ibrahim Hussein Addow,
Leader of Somalia’s Islamic Courts Union Delegation
Khartoum, Sudan.

I agree!

Speaking in Khartoum, Sharif Xasan Aadan, the man who brought the failed TFG to its knees was quoted as saying:

We are brothers, we can achieve a lot. We want to focus on ways and means to take Somalia out of its current debacle.

Certainly, we are brothers and sisters as Somalis. However, I wonder why Sharif Xasan Aadan failed to recognize that simple fact in the past! I do not think any Somali will buy that cheap, immoral and deceptive statement. Sharif Xasan Aadan cannot say we are brothers only when it suits his selfish political agendas.

The International Heard Tribune reports:

Sudan Negotiators for Somalia’s transitional government and its Islamist rivals met face to face behind closed doors Sunday for key talks in the Sudanese capital on political, security and economic issues. The talks — aimed at steering Somalia away from anarchic violence and toward peace and stability — revolve around a June agreement to discuss political, security, social and economic issues as well as reconstruction, according to a copy of the agenda obtained by The Associated Press. Somali parliament speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden was seen leading delegates from the U.N.-backed Somali government into the talks with Islamic courts representatives led by Ibrahim Hassan Adow, the group’s foreign affairs chief.
Negotiators have said they hope to discuss Cabinet positions for the Islamists and seats in Parliament as well as the transitional charter in talks that are expected to last several days.

The paper went on by saying:

Aden and Adow made no statements Sunday before going into the meeting but reaffirmed Saturday that they are committed to peace. Adow warned, however, that foreign interference in Somalia would be “a recipe for the renewal of civil war,” alluding to reports that Ethiopian troops had taken up position in three Somali towns.

As I have argued endless times in the past, I do not really understand the point of wasting time talking with the failed TFG and its Ethiopian Viceroy; Col. Cabdullahi Yuusuf Axmed! Now, what will Col. Cabdullahi Yuusuf offer to the ICU or to the Somali people in return for allowing him to continuing as a head of state? The answer to the question is simply NOTHING! Yes, I am aware of the fact that the Colonel has threatened to help full Ethiopian invasion of Somalia if he is asked to leave power and go home to Addis Abba. However, I do not think that there is anyone in Somalia today who is taking that threat very seriously other than the Colonel himself!

Having said that, I think, it is wise of the ICU leaders to show that they mean peace and that they are willing to talk to anyone in order to end the tragic political conflict in our beloved country. Nonetheless, no one should be under any illusion about the outcome of the inane talks in Sudan. It is just a farce!

Click here to view the full report on the IHT.

Rupert Murdoch’s FOX News reports:

Top African military officials are studying a proposal to send a 3,500-strong peace force by October to Somalia, where an internationally recognized government appears increasingly weak in comparison to and its fundamentalist Islamic rivals. Officials said Thursday that four battalions, made up of Ugandan and Sudanese troops, will be trained in Kenya before being deployed in an initial phase to the conflict-ridden country, African military experts told The Associated Press. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not allowed to speak to the media.

I think it is a huge political mistake to bring unwelcome African foreign troops into Somalia. Indeed, it will do more harm than good. Col. Cabdullaahi Yuusuf and the TFG cannot and should not be forced into the throats of the Somali people. The fact is that the overwhelming majority of the Somalia people refused to accept the legitimacy of the failed TFG.

Many people including myself have argued endlessly in the past that the TFG could function as a transitional government that could potentially pave the way for a more permanent political settlement for Somalia. Well, we were wrong and as it turned out the people of Somalia knew what is good for them better than any one else!

Now, let me tell you why I believe the deployment of foreign troops into Somalia is very bad idea. First, neither Kenya nor Ethiopia is an honest peace broker that cares about the well being of the Somali people and Somalia. On the contrary, the fact is that neither Kenya nor Ethiopia want emergence of strong and united Somalia. They want fragmented, weak, and disintegrated Somalia surrounded by strong Christian countries with Western political, economic and military support. The reason is that both countries annexed Somali regions illegally and they are afraid that strong future Somali government will revive Somali Nationalism and the noble idea of Greater Somalia including NFD and Western Somalia (Ogaden). I do believe that one of the reasons why the Somali peace process has failed thus far is the fact that both Kenya and Ethiopian were on the driver’s seat. In my opinion, the Somali political conflict need more honest peace brokers, preferably from the Arab and Islamic countries!

Second, the TFG is no more as it collapsed under its weight with cabinet ministers and federal MP’s deserting everyday by their dozens. The question is why would any body care to protect disgraced bunch of warlords, murderers and tribal chiefs with myopic political agenda that are doing nothing other than continuing endless political bickering among themselves? Democracy dictates the supremacy of the political will of the people. And the political will of the Somali people seems to be somewhere else at the moment!

Third, the Somali people will not like Ethiopian or Kenyan troops patrolling their towns and villages imposing illegitimate rulers that are protecting foreign interests that are detrimental to the well being of Somali Nation as a whole. Needless to say, any troops from those countries will most likely aggravate current political conflict in Somalia. As result, the security situation in the country will worsen!

Why put more gasoline on flaming fire?

Bottom-line: there is no rational argument for deploying foreign troops from Africa into Somalia!

Click here to view the full dispatch on FOX News.

The Irin News reported yesterday that:

After initially refusing to take part in peace negotiations, Somalia’s transitional government and the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), which controls the capital Mogadishu, have agreed to resume talks in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, officials said. “We have decided to participate in the talks in the interest of the people,” Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, the UIC chairman, said on Tuesday. The two sides announced their participation after meeting a Kenyan delegation to the country, led by Assistant Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetangula, on Monday.

Personally, I do not understand what difference a “talk” between the collapsed TFG and the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) will make? I mean, the ICU control the most strategic parts of the country including Mogadishu and they seem to be advancing politically and militarily with an amazing speed. Meanwhile, the powerless TFG is disintegrating everyday with a serious and widening political gap between Cali Geedi and Col. Cabdullahi Yusuf Axmed. More importantly, neither Cali Geedi nor Col. Cabdullahi Yusuf Axmed has done anything tangible for the Somali people since they came to power almost two years ago. The fact is that Col. Cabdullahi Yusuf Axmed was busy building tribal government of his own appointing former taxi drivers and waiters as ministers while Cali Geedi was unable to understand what his role as a prime Minister was really all about!

In this scenario, there is no political incentive for the ICU to even contemplate talking with the failed TFG. Without a doubt, they are the victorious party in this political and military chess game. Hence, they do not need the TFG at all. However, some have argued that the “Western” powers could isolate them if they succeed to take over the entire country and as a result incapacitate any future government by ICU. Therefore, the ICU should try to talk to the TFG in order to reach power sharing agreement that could potentially pave the way for a coalition government.

I do not believe that this is an argument worth any consideration at all. There are several reasons for my out right rejection of this line of argument. First, neither Cali Geedi nor Col. Cabdullaahi Yuusuf is popular with the West. Second, as I argued before, The ICU made several important political signals indicating that they were willing to address U.S. security concerns in Somalia. Indeed, the initial U.S. policy regarding the ICU did not seem hostile at all. However, the fact that Sheikh Dahir Aways is appointed to very prominent and politically powerful position complicates the matter somewhat. Third, the overwhelming majority of the Somali people are at the moment with the ICU politically and militarily if need be.

In short, the ICU is increasing looking like the legitimate power in Somalia while the TFG is seen by the fast majority of the Somali people as bunch of murderers, warlords and tribal chiefs bickering endlessly among themselves with NO one around to listen them.

Can any sane person tell me why the ICU would waste time talking with those folks? They must push on and liberate the rest of the country including the northern and eastern regions!

Click here to view the full dispatch on Irin News.

The Reuters news agencies reports:

Islamist fighters in Somalia have seized two coastal towns and vowed to rid the area of piracy that has made the country’s Indian Ocean waters some of the most dangerous in the world, residents said on Sunday. The militiamen met little resistance and there were no immediate reports of casualties as they moved into Harardheere, a town 400km (250 miles) north of the capital Mogadishu on Saturday, before advancing north to take Eldher a day later. “We have to secure the town and its surroundings,” one Islamist commander, who did not give his name, told a crowd of residents in Harardheere. “Piracy is a crime.” Fighters loyal to the country’s Islamic courts movement seized Mogadishu and a strategic swathe of southern Somalia in June. They oppose the interim government, based in the provincial town of Baidoa, and threaten its limited authority. Many on the coast applauded the Islamists’ arrival. “Now we will be free fishermen,” said Abdi Warsame, a fisherman in Harardheere. Piracy is a lucrative offshoot of a trade in smuggled drugs, weapons and people by Somalia’s powerful warlords.

Well, Somali pirates did indeed commit serious violation against the international maritime laws and regulations. However, they help to thwart international criminals that looted marine resources from the Somali coast. In short, their crimes help protect the Somali coast and that’s is not a bad thing for the Somali people!

Click here to view the dispatch on the AlertNet.