Islamic Courts Union spokesman Abdi-Rahiin Ali Mudey was quoted as saying:
Ethiopia has recently asked us to start talks with them so the deadline was basically meant to tell the Ethiopians to withdraw from Somalia, then talks they offered would be possible.
Does this mean that the threat of all out war is receding? I am not so sure but I hope that is case. We must give peace a chance.
In a statement released on Saturday, Louis Michel, EU Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid said:
I call upon all parties to refrain from engaging in a war that cannot be won by anyone. The spoilers and warmongers of all sorts that seek conflict in order to prevail militarily are fooling themselves as well as the Somali people.
Mr. Michel went on by saying:
A new war in Somalia will have tragic consequences not just for the people of Somalia but for the whole region and beyond. We simply cannot afford to see what is going to happen.
Click here to view the full by the Chinese news agency-Xinhua.
The Toronto Globe and Mail newspaper reports:
Nearly 200 troops serving Somalia’s weak Western-backed government defected to the Islamic courts movement, an Islamic official said Sunday, as both sides braced for impending war. Sheik Mohamed Ibrahim Bilal, head of the Islamic court in the Al-Bayan region, said the troops switched sides there late Saturday. Sheik Bilal told the Associated Press by telephone that the former government soldiers “are ready to be incorporated into the Islamic courts forces.†The court movement has promised to launch a holy war Tuesday unless troops from neighbouring Ethiopia, who are supporting the government, leave Somalia. Islamic fighters have surrounded the southern Sudanese town of Baidoa, the only town the government controls. Al-Bayan, where the defections are said to have taken place, is about 80 kilometres from Baidoa.
This is a major political and security setback for the TFG and their Ethiopian masters. However, the Islamic Courts forces should not make any military movement that the other side could perceive as an attack. They must hold their fire for now!
Contrary to what Col. Cabdullahi Yuusuf said, there is still a room for dialogue.
Click here to view the full report
Click here to view a full transcript of interview with Melez Zenawi, the Ethiopian Prime Minister.
The Pan-Arab Al Jezeera television network reports:
Leader of Somalia’s Islamic Courts militia and the influential parliament speaker said on Saturday that they had agreed at talks in Yemen to turn to dialogue between the Islamists and the government to resolve differences.†The Islamic Courts are committed to dialogue with the interim federal Somali government as a way of resolving differences … and stopping any moves conducive to military confrontations by any side,” speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden and Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed said in a joint statement. The statement was issued after three days of talks in the southern port city of Aden under the auspices of Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Yemeni president. It said the two sides would resume dialogue to reach a political settlement guaranteeing the participation of all sides in government.
Click here to view the full report.
Terrence Lyons of the Center for Preventive Action wrote a report titled: “Avoiding Conflict in the Horn of Africa: U.S. Policy toward Ethiopia and Eritreaâ€.
The entire report (PFD format) can be downloaded free of charge by clicking here.
According to the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations the Bush Administration is worried about Somalia becoming a “Terrorist Havenâ€:
Because Somalia is a chaotic, poor, battle-weary Muslim country with no central government. As former Secretary of State Colin Powell has said, “terrorist activity might find some fertile ground there, and we don’t want that to happen.†Moreover, U.S. government officials say that Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda terrorist network supported Somali radical Islamists, organized training camps in Somalia, and threatened American troops in Somalia who were there on a U.N. humanitarian mission in the early 1990s.
Click here to view the full “backgrounder†on the CFR.
You may also like to click here to view Eben Kaplan’s note on “Somalia’s Terrorist Infestation†notes.
Stephanie Hanson of the US Council of Foreign Relations writes:
In the disputed border area between Ethiopia and Eritrea, tensions have been high all year but neither side appears willing to break the stalemate. Instead, both countries have been amassing troops in neighboring Somalia in what appears to be a proxy war. The build-up threatens to tip the entire Horn of Africa into a regional war (CSMonitor). Such a conflict appears increasingly imminent: this week Somalia’s Islamists threatened they’ll attack (BBC) if Ethiopian troops don’t leave within seven days. Ethiopia—a Christian nation with a significant Muslim population—sent troops into Somalia in support of the country’s weak, but internationally recognized, transitional government. Since the Islamists’ seizure of Mogadishu in June and the expansion of their area of control, Addis Ababa has been concerned their influence could inflame Ethiopia’s Muslims. Eager to support the enemy of its enemy, Eritrea has provided arms and troops to support the Somali Islamists, as well as other anti-Ethiopian forces in Somalia.
Ms. Hanson does not seem to understand the internal political dynamics of the Somali people. The external political and security factors certainly add more fuel to the tragic somali conflict but they are not the cause of the current conflict as Ms. Hanson mistakenly seem to imply!
Click here to view the full note on the Council of Foreign Relations.
Simon Tissdall of the Guardian newspaper writes:
Watching Somalia right now is like standing on a beach, waiting for a category five hurricane to hit. The storm is approaching fast, there seems little that can be done, and the ensuing destruction will be terrible - and far-reaching. The looming Somali cataclysm threatens to spark a regional war, suck in east African and Arab actors, and create a dangerous new theatre in the polarising, global contest between western power and Islamist jihadism. Somalia has the potential to make Darfur look like a little local difficulty.
Mr. Tisdall went on by saying:
Three outcomes were possible at this juncture, the western source said. One was that UN-backed, on-off talks between the UIC and Baidoa government resumed, the African protection force deployed, and a “proper political process” got underway. Another, less improbable scenario was that Ethiopia used its military superiority to secure Baidoa and “clobber” some UIC training camps, enabling the government to negotiate from a stronger position. But a third, nightmare outcome was that “the Ethiopians do the full monty, go in in strength, and get stuck”, the source said. That could lead to spreading, al-Qaida-fuelled guerrilla warfare akin to Iraq, Sudanese-style Arab-African conflict, and ultimately, pressure for direct western intervention.
The International Herald Tribune writes:
Somalia’s president (Col. Cabdullahi Yuusuf ) said Friday that peace talks with the country’s Islamic movement are no longer an option because the group’s leaders have declared war on his government
The paper writes that Col. Cabdullahi Yuusuf of the TFG was quoted as saying:
They are the ones who effectively closed the door to peace talks and they are the ones who are waging the war.
The Colonel continued by saying:
The fighting can happen at any time now.
War should not be the first option. Somali political leaders must make peace and they should not threaten to wage war that could certainly cause the death of thousands of innocent Somalis.
David Gollust of Voice of America wries:
In a bleak assessment of the Somali situation, Assistant Secretary Frazer says radicals including al-Qaida figures have taken control of the Islamic Courts movement, and that it may be too late for a plan approved by the U.N. Security Council earlier this month to stabilize the situation. On December 6, the Security Council approved a resolution granting an exemption to the U.N. arms embargo on Somalia to allow an East African military mission to enter the country and shore up the country’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) based in Baidoa which is under siege from the Islamic Courts. Uganda has agreed to take part in what is termed a protection and training mission by the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development, IGAD, but the process of assembling the force has been slow. In a talk with reporters, Assistant Secretary Frazer said the United States has lent diplomatic support to the effort, but that it may be too late to achieve the objective of Resolution 1725 - to bolster the transitional government in order to prompt the Union of Islamic Courts to return to talks on the country’s future: “It could possibly be too late,” said Jendayi Frazer. “And I think we need to be very clear that the Africans believe they asked for these two and a half years ago. When the TFG first went back to Somalia from Nairobi, they asked for this exemption. And so there are some African countries that will definitely state that we waited too late.”
Sheikh Yusuf Mohamed Siad “Inda’adeâ€; the defense chief of the Somali Islamic Nationalists issued an ultimatum and asked Ethiopian troops to leave all Somali territories that they currently occupy within a week or face an all-out war.
Personally, I do not believe that war should be rushed to as it only brings misery and bloodshed. In addition, the TFG is so weak and powerless that it is only a matter of time before it collapses under its own weight. Hence, toppling it by forces will only create more chaos.
Peace must be given a chance!
Sheikh Yusuf Mohamed Siad “Inda’adeâ€; (on the right).
Copy Right: Shabelle Media/Reuters News Agency.
Oryem Okello; the Ugandans Minister of State for Foreign Affairs was quoted as saying:
We have decided that at this particular time, we should not go to Somalia.
The Minister went on by saying:
The situation has deteriorated rapidly — it risks all-out war.
This is a great victory for the Somali people. No country should help facilitate Ethiopian invasion of Somalia. I hope other countries will act wisely and follow Uganda’s lead.
In an editorial the Arab News says:
The Arab League’s decision Sunday in Cairo to break the economic embargo imposed by the United States and Europe on the Hamas-led Palestinian administration was long overdue. Indeed it may be asked why any Arab state ever subscribed to this unjust punishment of a country, simply because its people had elected a government that Washington did not like. Hamas’ crime in American eyes was that it refused to recognize Israel and had used terror tactics, including suicide bombers. Yet no such sanctions were ever contemplated against Israel, which does not recognize Palestine and uses its own terror tactics to slay far greater number of Palestinians than the number of Israelis who fall victim to militant violence.
The people in the United States voted for Bush and the Palestinians elected Hamas led government. I am not a big fan of the Bush Adminstration or Hamas!
However, democracy is an expression of the political will of free people and sometimes it produces what some people may perceive as undesirable outcomes. However, the West cannot say, “We want to see democratized Middle East†and at the same time oppose the verdict that the very democratic political process they claim to advocate has delivered. To me that is an immoral double standard which the Muslim world must reject outright!
In short, the Arab League did the right thing to reject the misguided US policy towards the Palestinian people.
The Spero News reports:
A large deployment of forces is underway along the border between Kenya and Somalia. The Kenyan armed forces were widely deployed along the border with the Gedo region (extreme south of Somalia) and particularly at the El-Wakh border pass. “Military troops, police and armoured vehicles are massed at the El-Wakh village in Kenyaâ€, said this morning a local correspondent of a top Mogadishu radio. Residents of villages of the Gedo region along the border confirmed the troop movements on the other side of the border, specifying that the first reinforcements began arriving in the zone shortly after the militants of the Islamic Courts on September 25 seized the city of Kismaayo.
It looks like that Somalia is under attack from many fronts!
Click here to view the full article on Spero News
The Economist Magazine reports:
Eyewitness reports on Monday October 9th suggested that “several hundred†Ethiopian soldiers, perhaps three battalions, had entered the small town of Burhakaba, well inside Somali territory. There have long been reports of Ethiopian troops at the town of Baidoa, 65km to the north, where a UN-recognised (but not widely Somali-recognised) transitional government sits. And there have been regular and credible reports of Ethiopian military planes landing on dirt strips up and down the country. Ethiopia has claimed, not very convincingly, that it has no soldiers inside Somalia. In fact it seems that the soldiers were sent in as a response to an approach by Islamist forces, soldiers under the control of a de facto government in Mogadishu, known as the Islamic courts, to within 20km of Baidoa late last week. There has been no fighting, yet. The Islamists were undermanned in the town and retreated without a shot being fired. But such calm is unlikely to last. Burhakaba is a strategically useful forward base for any attack on Mogadishu. Islamist leaders have vowed to take back the town; some unconfirmed accounts say they already have.
Click here to view the full article.
The Malaysian News Agency (Bernama) reports:
Somalia’s powerful Islamist movement declared “holy war” against neighboring Ethiopia after a Muslim-held town near the seat of the weak government fell to Ethiopian and Somali troops. A day after warning of a regional war if Addis Ababa does not withdraw from Somali territory, the Islamists escalated their rhetoric, vowing to repel Ethiopian soldiers in a tacit warning to the transitional government. “From today, I am declaring jihad against Ethiopia, which has invaded our country and taken parts of our homeland,” said Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, chair of the executive committee of the Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia (SICS). “The jihad is on from now (and) application of that will be directed by the supreme council,” he said in Mogadishu, which the Islamists seized in June and have used as a base to expand through most of south and central Somalia.
War is not the solution to Somalia’s tragic political conflict. However, Ethiopian invasion of Somalia must not be allowed to happen at any cost! Somalia must be allowed to exist as a free nation. Hence, Ethiopia must respect Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Click here for the full article
The online “Peace Peporter†writes:
The moment feared so much may have arrived. Monday morning, following the conquest of the center of Buur Hakaba on the part of joint Somali and Ethiopian forces, the Islamic courts have declared a holy war against Ethiopia, accused of having invaded the country and of being the party responsible for Somali instability.
Click here to view the full article.
The Houston Chronicles quoted a resident of the Somali port town of Kismaayo as saying “We welcome the Islamic courtsâ€. The paper also reported Hirale’s deputy, Yusuf Mire Mohamud, as saying “the Juba Valley Alliance has collapsed today.â€.
Could Bosaaso and Berbera be next? It is unbelievable to see the speed of political and military advancement of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU)!
Click here to view the article.
Sunguta West writing for the “Global Terrorism Analysis†of the James Town Foundation says:
The ICU remains under the leadership of Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, who observers say is a moderate Islamist responsible for steering the courts in a convincing political direction and establishing a sense of law and order in Mogadishu and the southern parts of the country. Yet within this period, one of his moderate deputies, Sheikh Abdulkadir Ali Omar, has appeared to bloom, speaking frequently and outlining ICU policy on issues including the training of its militia, peace talks and sometimes defending the courts when they make unpopular or extremist decisions. With the courts enjoying success after wrestling Somalia’s formal capital from a faction of warlords, Sheikh Omar defended the courts against accusations that the Islamists were harboring wanted terrorists in Mogadishu. Sheikh Omar, who is one of the vice chairmen of the executive council of the ICU, had on behalf of the courts said that such claims were not true. “If you can find a terrorist, let us know,” he told journalists in June. “If we find one we are very much prepared to hand him over. There are no foreign terrorists in Mogadishu” (Islam-Online.net, June 18).
I am not sure political significance of what Sunguta West is talking about.
Be the judge and read the full article by clicking here.
Dr. Michael A. Weinstein of The Power and Interest News Report (PINR):
Far from ameliorating the polarized power configuration pitting the I.C.C. against Ethiopia, which is determined to defend the T.F.G. and prevent the emergence of an Islamic state in Somalia, the second round of the Khartoum process — brokered by the Arab League (A.L.) — intensified the confrontation and spawned new conflicts. With all the players under severe duress, all of Somalia came into play, regional actors polarized as Western powers watched from the sidelines, and cracks appeared within Somalia’s society as local and clan conflicts surfaced, portending the possibility of civil war and a return to the extreme political fragmentation that had characterized the country before the I.C.C.’s surge through its southern and central regions in early June, after the Courts movement had expelled the ruling warlord coalition from Somalia’s official capital Mogadishu.
Interesting analysis! However, I just got the article from PINR through email few minutes ago and I will need to read it properly. Hopefully, I will be able to make a comment about this later this week.
In the meantime, you may like to click here to view the full article on the PINR.
The BBC News reports:
The African Union has approved plans to send 8,000 peacekeepers to Somalia to support the interim government. An alliance of Islamic courts which controls the capital and much of central and southern Somalia says it will oppose any deployment by force. A meeting at AU headquarters in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, agreed that the first soldiers should be in place by the end of the month. But obstacles remain as the AU does not have the funds to pay for the troops. The approval for the force by the African Union Peace and Security Council also appears to fly in the face of a shaky agreement between Somalia’s interim government and the Islamic courts not to allow any foreign intervention.
This is a big political mistake that could potentially ignite new armed confrontation between Somali Army on one side and Col. Cabdullahi Yuusuf and his tribal militia with Ethiopian army on the other side. As I wrote before, Col. Cabdullahi Yuusuf and the failed TFG must understand that the political legitimacy cannot be achieved through the barrel of the gun. It must be earned through popular support!
The Somali people must defend their country against the looming threat of foreign invasion!
Click here to view then full dispatch by the BBC.
Mogadishu is once again a key entry point for getting food stocks into the country. The reopening of the port makes it easier for us to reach more than one million people across the country who rely on our assistance.
Leo van der Velden
Somalia Acting Country Director
UN World Food Program (WFP)
The Kenya Broadcasting Corporation reports:
An Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has reaffirmed support for the ongoing initiatives to promote dialogue for sustainable peace in Somalia. However the meeting at State House Nairobi today under the chairmanship of President Mwai Kibaki, the noted that the prevailing situation posed a threat to peace and gravely undermined the ability of the Transitional Federal Institutions in Somalia to consolidate the gains made so far to achieve long-term stability. The meeting, attended by President Abdulahi Yusuf of Somalia and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia re-affirmed support for the Transitional Federal Charter and Federal Transitional Institutions as an embodiment of the common will of the Somali people. In a communiqué issued at the end of the consultation, the IGAD forum expressed support for the ongoing dialogue between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and encouraged both parties to strive to overcome any differences by actively pursuing genuine reconciliation. The forum further reiterated that any dialogue must be based on the will of the Somalia people and preserve the sanctity of the Transitional Federal Charter and Federal Institutions which provide a solid political framework to achieve a lasting solution to the Somali problems. They endorsed the revised Igad Mission to Somalia (IGASOM) deployment plan as approved by the African Union (AU) peace and security council and further called on the AU to provide the requisite funds to enable the implementation of the first phase of the plan.
IGAD is a dysfunctional organisation run by depots, dictators and the enemy of the Somali Nation (Ethiopia and Kenya). Hence, no one should be surprised by this act! They want the tragic Somali conflict to continue!
Click here to view the full article.
Wangui Kanina of the Reuters news agency writes:
East African leaders pushed ahead on Tuesday with a contested plan to send peacekeepers to Somalia, despite a separate military deal between the country’s rival powers that appeared to block foreign intervention. The regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which led talks that produced Somalia’s interim government in 2004, urged the African Union to speed approval of the proposed peacekeeping mission, release funds and help raise more money to support the deployment of troops. IGAD also called on the U.N. Security Council to meet “urgently” to consider lifting its arms embargo on Somalia, torn apart by factions fighting for control of the Horn of Africa nation since warlords ousted Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. Late on Monday, Islamist and government delegates meeting in the Sudanese capital Khartoum, agreed in principle to join their military forces if they could agree on sharing political power. The pact stressed that neither side would accept military interference inside Somalia by neighboring countries and seemed to set up yet another possible conflict between the government and the Islamists.
The TFG must put screeching halt on this ill-thought and counter-productive plan. Col. Cabdullaahi Yuusuf and Cali Geedi cannot say we want to negotiate peace while at the same time they keeping fueling the conflict by pushing for African troop deployment in Somalia.
Somali peace talks need more honest peace brokers from the Arab and Islamic countries. As the saying goes “ Baadida ninbaa kula daydayi, daalna kaa badin, aan doonahayn inaad heshana daaying abidkaaâ€. Both Ethiopa and Kenya are working tirelessly for permanent break up of Somalia and further fragmentation of the Somali Nation.
We cannot and we must not allow Somalia’s enemies to sit on the driver’s seat as we did in the past!
Click here to view the full article onn Reuters.
The International Herald Tribune writes:
Somalia’s virtually powerless government and an Islamic militia that has seized control of much of southern Somalia have signed an agreement to eventually form a unified national army, officials said. The deal late Monday, which came after two days of peace talks in Sudan, did not specify when the agreement would take effect. Talks were to resume Oct. 30 in Khartoum. “The Islamic courts have met the expectations of our people,†said Abdullahi Sheik Ismail, one of several deputy prime ministers in the government. Both sides also agreed to form a peace committee in order to determine how to implement the plan. Ibrahim Hassan Adow, who signed on behalf of the Islamic courts, said: “We are pleased we came to this agreement within two days.†Another major point was that the Islamic courts will not take any more territory and will instead wait for the Oct. 30 talks. Both sides also agreed to stop the use of propaganda against each other.
I wonder what the TFG offered.
Click here to view the full report on the IHT.
Above story is reported also by Al Jazeera, LA Times and Ottawa Citizen.
The Dubai based Gulf News newspaper reports:
A copy of the agenda obtained by AP shows that the talks, expected to continue for several days, are to revolve around a June agreement to discuss political, security, social and economic issues as well as reconstruction. Negotiators have said they hope to discuss Cabinet positions for the Islamists and seats in the transitional parliament as well as the transitional charter. The Islamists could argue that they control a significant part of the country and on that basis should share power with Somali President Abdullahi Yousuf’s transitional government.
If true, this is really a big mistake by the ICU. I mean the ICU does not need to hold cabinet posts in the failed TFG. They already control the most strategic sectors of the country including Mogadishu. They should go ahead and assemble their own government by consulting with Somali people and its local leaders. The TFG had its chance to lead the country and it failed.
Somalia needs a fresh start!
The South African Mail and Guardian Reports:
At least 12 people were killed and 11 wounded on Monday when Somali police clashed with gunmen for control of the airport in the government seat of Baidoa, officials and witnesses said. The fighting erupted as members of the weak transitional administration met with Somalia’s powerful Islamic movement in Sudan but was unrelated to the peace talks, although it underscored instability in the lawless nation. Police said they had moved on the Baidoa airport to evict militia fighters who had set up shop there, imposing taxes and recruiting cronies into their ranks after having been dismissed as airport security workers. “Twelve people have been killed, seven militiamen and five from the government security,” Baidoa police official Omar Aden Abdulle said from the town, about 250km north-west of Mogadishu.
Click here to view the full report.